What Happened?

Almost a year ago I was having dinner with my colleagues and bosses. At the time, I was working for an American company and the bosses were American. At one point the conversation shifted to the recently completed election in Canada and the upcoming election in the United States of America.


The conversation shifted to Donald Trump as President. The company's group vice-president turned to me and told me not to worry, there is no way that Trump would ever be President.


We are six sleeps from the US Presidential Election and it is not out of the sphere of the possible that Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States.


How is this possible?


Despite the fact that he has made a fortune, he is not fit for President. He has said horrible things. He acts without thinking. He is rude. He lies. The list goes on. I don't need to expound on the details here, they are readily available everywhere. Yet, with everything that he has done, he may still win. It is not a slam dunk.


Last Friday on his weekly show, Bill Mahr noted that Democrats really need to ask, "Why doesn't America like us?"


With any respectable candidate seen as an outsider, the Trump strategy would have been an runaway winner. Only his deplorable character is holding him back. (This is not a bad thing, I really think he should not run that country.)


Donald Trump was able to tap into a lot of people who feel lost in America. His slogan of Make America Great Again is really just the icing on the cake. His real strategy is find and mobilize disenfranchised Americans by using Hilary's calling card against her. By agreeing with the angry American that the system is broken and letting the Democrats remind the angry voter that Hilary has been doing this for 30 years, it sets her up to be responsible for the system being broken. When you throw in a few decisions that question her judgement, no wonder she can't pull ahead in what should be a one horse race. In 2016, nobody as deplorable as Donald Trump should be this close to potential victory but it's happening. One of the reasons why is his opponent's husband has significant character flaws as well. The fact that she remained with him after it became very public, removes the moral high-ground that she should be standing on. She won't speak to it. It's like she's trying to hide something, so can she really comment on his tax returns?


Hillary Clinton has been preparing for this moment for over 30 years and if she loses, that will be her undoing.


Nobody is going to win this time around, despite their best efforts, one of them is not going to lose. American's are big on the peaceful transition of power, and in four years they can transfer power from one of these two to someone who can lead that nation.

The Petty Fight for the Biggest Office

Last night I couldn't resist and I watched the first debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.


I'll put this out there right now, Trump is nuts. Most of what he said was garbage. He lied. He went off topic. He really didn't respect the moderator. He didn't respect the time limits. He was rude at times. He didn't like it when his brand was attacked. All that being said, he controlled the room all night, for all the reasons I just stated.


Clinton had her moments. She counterpunched. She let Donald set her up and she hit him, sometimes scoring. However, she never carried the narrative. She never controlled the room. If you wanted to, you could defeat her by saying nothing and waiting for her to attack. She never had a tendency to attack and often her voice sounded unsure.


To me, even though she said the right words most of the night, it lacked confidence and conviction. Saying the right thing is important but making it believable and confident is also important, especially if you want to lead.


Now, being Canadian, I don't get to pick in this election, even though there will be spillover effects felt north of the border. Unfortunately, I can't see either of them being President of the United States of America.


I know, Hillary Clinton should be a shoo-in, but she's not. She's in a dog-fight with a buffoon. Trump clearly lost last night but it's because of his pompous arrogant slick talking ways with no regard for the truth and not because Clinton kicked his metaphorical feet out from under him, stepped on his chest, and drove a wooden stake through his bigoted heart. And, unless she does that in one of the two remaining debates, she risks losing. Donald Trump talks about winning and how he is a winner. It has been part of his narrative since he started down this path to the oval office. For me it feels like Clinton will only become President if she comes in second last in a two horse race. It feels like her only hope is Trump becomes even more horrible and people see how bad he is instead of how good she is.


I saw a meme a while back that said, "A software interface is like a joke, if you have to explain it, it isn't very good." If you are running for President and your strategy is to show how bad your opponent is, are you really very good?

America, You Have a Problem

I'll save you the effort of reading my bio, I'm Canadian. I like America. I like to visit. I like your movies. I like your food. I like a lot of your people.

However, America, you have a problem.

I was originally going to title this post "Dump on Trump." The Trump phenomenon scares me. As I was building this in my head I realized that it's not Donald Trump that is the problem. Don't get me wrong, Donald Trump as President of the United States is a huge problem but it's only one of the symptoms. He's the disease that kills you when your immune system is weakened by something much more powerful.

Donald Trump is a very good carnival barker. He really is. He doesn't need cue cards. He interacts with the crowd and feeds off them while they feed off him. Next thing you know, you are inside the tent. Step right up America, I'm going to build a wall. Admit it, you are curious if he can build the wall and get Mexico to pay for it. I know I am. I also know that deep down I don't want him to run America.

America is a big country with big country problems. They do a lot of things well but when they mess up, it is a disaster.

America has not and is not doing such a good job of promoting diversity. This is a problem. If you don't see how a different point of view can make you stronger, you are losing an opportunity to get smarter. Trump is tapping into this and doing a good job at it too. He is making people angry that their version of America is being limited. He is giving them an outlet. He is giving a disenfranchised group hope. That build momentum.

America has an unhealthy attitude about guns. I have no problem with guns. I have shot guns and may do so again in the future. If private citizens are using guns for sport shooting or for hunting, these are good reasons to use guns. If you feel you need a gun to protect your self or your family, you are hanging around the wrong people. I know that guns don't kill people, but people kill people. I agree. However, if you think carrying a gun will protect you when a convenience store is being robbed, you woefully misunderstand what guns do. Guns shoot bullets. Guns do not stop bullets. If you think that someone so desperate that they are willing to hold up a gas bar is not going to pull the trigger first because you have a gun, you are sadly mistaken. I suppose if you sneak up behind him and shoot him in the back, you won't get shot but if he is pointing a gun at you there is a good chance you will be shot before you are pointing your gun at him. Guns are not designed to protect you, they are designed to project force. They are designed to harm others which is why they are so popular with militaries, who's whole existence is to fight and win wars for their country. Using a gun for protection is the using the wrong tool but so is building a wall to stop immigration. Donald Trump taps into that. It's not the right tool for the job, but it rings well with the people.

I know what you are thinking, it's and election, they won't pick him. Well, herein lies the problem. At the time of writing this post, seventy percent of Americans don't trust Hillary Clinton. I find that she comes off as phoney. She is the ultimate insider. Her husband cheated on her and she stayed with him for the opportunity for power. She flip-flops. She's a politician to the core and Americans are fed up with that as well. If Trump is the really bad candidate, she is the bad candidate. One candidate can whip the crowd into a frenzy about everything you don't want the president talking about the other can barely get anyone excited about anything at all.

This is a prime situation for an independent to come right up the middle and take it all. Someone moderate to appeal to the big clump in the middle. I'm not sure who this would be. The problem is these days Americans don't do anything half way. If it's going to be big, it has to be the biggest. If it's going to be loud, it has to be the loudest. If it's going to be hot, it has to be the hottest. 

America, you have a problem but the good news is you have time to fix it. You are a big country, I'm sure one of you has the courage to do the right thing, after all you say you are the land of the brave.

'Merica

About 24 hours ago, Barrack Obama was declared the winner in the US Presidential Election. I have been thinking a lot about the spectacle and the future. Both have me a bit worried.

Americans like a show and they turn their election into the biggest show on earth. They spend a lot of money to spew rhetoric and attack each other. They seem to be getting a bit short on substance in a lot of what they say. For the most part, I have no idea going to move forward.

The bigger thing is the future.

I don't think America had much of a choice. They could choose the incumbent who, four years ago, was big on talk of hope and change but really I see a lot of Americans who have very little hope and not a lot has changed in four years. The could also choose the challenger who kept saying the wrong thing and doesn't come across as understanding what the average American is living through. I'm still not sure how I would have voted if I were allowed to do so.

I tend to vote based on economic issues. A strong economy fixes a lot of problems. If people have all the employment they want, they don't need a lot of social programs and there is plenty of revenue to pay for the programs that everyone wants. If you are pretty sure that your next several paycheques are coming, everything else seems possible.

As a non-American the best thing for me is for America to fix its economy. I understand why people think it's important that the US updates its social programs but if you don't live there it won't change your life.

So America has chosen four more years of the teleprompter president. I just hope for their sake he is a bit more than adequate in his next term.

The Other Guy's Election

Watching the buildup to an election you can't vote for is a bit like watching a sporting event. You can have an opinion but can't really do anything to change who will win. This is how the US Presidential election feels. In reality, I'm happy I don't have to pick someone to vote for in this election. I'm not sure if there is a good choice.

Barack Obama is seeking re-election. He seems like a good guy. He said he would change Washington. It doesn't seem to me that he has. Now he is saying he has the experience his opponent doesn't have. That may be true but he first campaigned on not being part of the establishment and now he is saying he is the establishment. 

At the Democratic National Convention the President reminded everyone that he was president when they got Osama Bin Laden. He put this forward as a great example of his foreign policy experience. If you think about it, they were looking for Bin Laden before he was the President. He probably had to tell the Chief of the Joint Staffs to keep looking. That's an easy decision, every American hates Bin Laden. Once they found him, it wouldn't be too hard to order the death of a man hated by every American. I'm not sure if that is a concrete example of great foreign policy action. However, it will tug at the heartstrings of every American.

On the other side there is Mitt Romney. He can run a company but I'm not sure he can run a country. He did run a state, so he may have an idea what he's getting into but often business people have trouble adapting to the inflexible structure of government. What's right for one group may be wrong for another. It's a tough racket to get into if you are used to the flexibility of the business world. I just don't know if he knows what he may end up doing. However, he seems to be the better choice to fix the ailing US economy, and if that gets fixed, the world will become a better place.

I don't know who will do a better job and I don't get a say in this one. I haven't seen a clear answer yet. They both have something to offer. It may come down to the devil you know or the devil you don't. Don't get me wrong, I have no reason to not think they are both decent men who are try to do what they think is right, the problem may be we don't know what is right.

Ramblings On An Election

Yesterday there was an election in Canada. As always there was winners and losers. Since there was losers people were disappointed. This is to be expected as it happens whenever people are unsuccessful.

For me, democracy isn't perfect but is is better than everything else. Only through free democratic voting does the will of the people be heard. Only with democracy does everyone have an equal say in how they want their nation to be lead and managed.

Democracy can leave a lot of people disappointed.

In Canada we elect a representative for our riding to go to Ottawa and represent our concerns. The party who has the most sitting Members of Parliament form the government. Because your vote is for your local candidate the party that forms the government may not receive the majority of votes. Thus can lead to frustration but it is how the system is built.

Voter turnout can be a huge source of consternation. Because voting is not mandatory not everyone chooses to vote. If you are good with numbers you can calculate that not a lot of people may have voted for the winners. Just remember that even fewer voted for the losers. It's important to remember we all have an equal say if we choose to vote.

It can be frustrating to a lot of people but democracy works. It's not perfect but I look at Libya as an alternative.

The Social Media Election

It seems that this current election is being referred to as the social media election. I was born well after the proliferation television or the telephone but I'm sure they revolutionized elections back in the day.

If you step back and think about it, winning an election is about communicating why you are the best candidate for the job. It only makes sense to use any means available to communicate what you intend to do.

The key to it all is, social media is a tool. It isn't who uses the tool best will win the election, it's who has the best message. You can speak though the best microphone in the world, if what you are saying is crap then all you get is louder crap.

I'm not here to tell you who to vote for. There are plenty of people who post comments on CBC.ca that will gladly tell you who to vote for. I'm just commenting that social media may change how you get the info but the message still has to be good.

So far it's really been a lackluster election, even if the candidates are using social media. I hope it picks up. In any event I will vote.